Forget the 1979 revolution, the recent events in Iran are brewing for a situation similar to Kenya, if not worse. Well, I am probably doing an awful job at comparison since there was no outside force compelling the Kenyan election results.
But the 1979 revolution took place because the likes of Ayatollah Khomeini thought that Shah Reza was a tool for the west, and was not working for the best interests of Iranians. What came out of that is the present ruling government that embodies Islamic principles and have done their best to eliminate any sort of "western Influence" from the Iranian people/culture. So far so good...the people seem compliant, and things are going well.
by the way, one of the most interesting things that I found out is that a lot of people or leaders throw stones at the Ahmadinejad and think that he is the all in all when it comes to leading...but there is a lack of understanding that in reality he is only second in command. He is merely an elected official who in the end has to bow to the Supreme Leader who at the moment is Ali Khamenei.
But here is the thing, as the pressure of the US/Iran relationship keeps being squeezed into non-existence, so is the unrest in the country. The present elections are not helping very much because While Ahmadinejad is loved in the country, there is an outcry of unfair elections. The power of the Guardian Council is being felt, and there is potential of this getting out of hand.
How will things turn out?
As a personal opinion, much depends on the opposition party. Whether the protests and violence stops will depend on former centrist president Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a founding father of the Islamic republic, and Moussavi. At the moment they feel the election was stolen from them and that the majority of public support is on their side. it is my guess that they are probably planning more public protests. in 30 years of the Islamic Republic of Iran there has never been such division of the ruling elite, and is seems that this time, the public might be used to bring about "favorable" results.
The Supreme leader, will more than likely do nothing because his position is not at stake, and until that time that he feels he be be outlasted, then and then will he act...but at the moment, even though the opposition leaders have appealed to him, they might just go to the streets without his moving a muscle....(and who knows, he might as well be part of the election steal)
how about the rest of the world?
If indeed Ahmadinejad keeps his presidency, then there is probably not much change to be expected in Iran...especially regarding its relationship to the west. Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert seems to think that things might not change for the worst, but without him, things might not change for the better either. He states that while Ahmadinejad " presses the worst buttons in the context of domestic U.S. politics with his denial of the Holocaust and belligerence towards Israel." he might be the ticking bomb needed for the UN/US to carry out tougher sanctions on the country. I think that it would be in the best interest for the countries abroad to have him as president. Domestically in Iran he has profoundly mismanaged the economy with one of the highest inflation rates in the world and high unemployment.... which would definately frustrate the Iranians.
but all in all, lets not forget: Despite the attention paid to the office of the Iranian presidency, every policy, including the much debated nuclear policy is set by the country's religious leaders led by the one and only Supreme Leader, and at the moment they appear to be determined to amass enriched uranium whether or not a hard-liner or a moderate is president.
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